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Accelerated Global Warming And Atmospheric CO2 Emissions

Saturday, November 27th, 2010 at
1:47 pm

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Author: James Nash

Title: Accelerated Global Warming And Atmospheric CO2 Emissions

Article: Up to now it has been generally assumed that global warming
will be a linear process. However evidence from the geological past linked with
climate modelling that takes into account the global warming that is already
locked into the system indicates that there may not be a linear response to
rising CO2 levels. There is a danger that at some point we will cross a
threshhold when global warming accelerates. By continuing to increase the amount
of CO2 in the atmosphere we are getting closer to that point.From the analysis
of the bubbles of air trapped in ice cores taken from the Greenland icecap that
are up to 500,000 years old it has been shown that the temperature of the
Earth's atmosphere and the CO2 content has followed a regular 100,000 year cycle
of change with the CO2 content and temperature closely linked and following the
same graph line. Within this regular cycle there are some recently discovered
very short periods of approximately only a few hundred years duration when
temperatures rise dramatically by 8 degrees centigrade above the slower rises of
up to 7 degrees centigrade. This gives a total range of 15 degrees centigrade
from peak to trough. These records show natural processes at work before the
impact of man's activities. We are currently in the lower temperature part of
the cycle.During the period covered by the ice core research the CO2 content of
the atmosphere has varied between 170 and 280 ppm. (parts per million). From
1850 to today with the added input from the burning of fossil fuels the CO2
content has risen to 350 ppm. So we are now well outside of the historic range
of values and CO2 levels are going to continue to rise for a long time yet and
temperatures will follow.Recent research has shown that the Amazon rain forest
is not a stable mature forest with growth and decay in balance but is in fact an
expanding forest that is being fertilised by the excess atmospheric CO2. The
trees are getting bigger and there is a net take up of 5000 kg of carbon per
hectare per year (1 hectare = 100 x 100 metres). The total area of forest is 400
million hectares so the whole forest could be absorbing 2 billion tons of carbon
per year.Research in the savanah lands to the east of the Amazon Basin has
established that the crucial factor determining the development of the rain
forest is the length of the dry season. The savanah to the east of the Amazon
Basin and the eastern Amazon rain forest both receive about the same amount of
rainfall, 1500 mm per year. However in the savanah the dry season lasts 6 months
but in the rainforest the dry season only lasts 4 months.As a result of the
longer dry season the savanah catches fire an average of twice in ten years
whereas the rainforest with the shorter dry season does not dry out and remains
damp enough to prevent fire. In the savanah the fires destroy most of the
vegetation and this prevents the savanah developing into a rainforest. If the
dry season in the rainforest was extended to 6 months by climate change effects
then the rainforest would dry out and burn and could not then re-establish
itself. If the rainforest burnt this would release the CO2 currently being
absorbed year by year. So the forest would change from being a buffer which for
a hundred years has absorbed our excess CO2 into a major source of CO2 releasing
tens of years build up of CO2 in a matter of weeks.It is accepted by all,
including climate change sceptics, that increasing the amount of CO2 in the
atmosphere will lead to increased global warming and many computer models have
been constructed giving a rise in average atmospheric temperature of between 2
and 6 degrees centigrade by the end of the century i.e. by 2100.But only now are
models being constructed that incorporate a feed-back into the model of the
effects of changes in world climate due to the changes in temperature that are
predicted by the model as the model programme runs. One of the most important
effects of climate change is the release of carbon dioxide from natural
processes as atmospheric temperature rises.Because of the "above normal" level
of CO2 already in the atmosphere we are already committed to a certain amount of
global warming because the excess CO2 will remain effective for many years. In
addition the continued burning of fossil fuels will continue to add to the
atmospheric burden of CO2. This warming will inevitably cause some climate
change.The area of the world most vulnerable to the effects of global warming
induced climate change is the Amazon basin. The climate change models show that
rising sea temperatures in the Pacific Ocean result in less rainfall and a
longer dry season in the Amazon Basin. As described above this could lead to a
reversal of the Amazon basin acting as a CO2 sink and it becoming a major source
of CO2 returning the billions of tons of carbon to the atmosphere that have been
stored there.If the Amazon rainforest burns and releases billions of tons of CO2
into the atmosphere in a short period then this will be a further boost to
global warming that will result in significantly higher end of century
temperatures.The climate change model with climate change induced feedbacks
indicates that on present trends the date for the change from CO2 sink to source
for the Amazon rainforest is about 2050. So we have not got much time to get CO2
under control before that might happen. The Amazon rainforest is at present
still acting as a buffer and is protecting us from the full effect of the global
warming that would be created if all the CO2 we produce remained in the
atmosphere.If temperatures rise too high then there could be another natural
phenomenon which would lead to the release of methane into the atmosphere.
Methane is a very powerful greenhouse gasCurrent research based on the analysis
of ancient sediments from Vladivostock and fossil evidence from Wyoming
indicates that runaway methane global warming events have occurred in the past
and the conditions prevailing on Earth now are suitable for it to happen again.
James Nash is a climate scientist with Greatest Planet (http://www.greatestplanet.org/). Greatest Planet is a
non-profit environmental organization specialising in carbon offset investments.
James Nash is solely responsible for the contents of this article.

Syndication Source: ThoughtSearch.com

Tagged with: environmental concerns • Environmental Issues

Filed under:Healthy Home • Home Environment

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